A major weather event is forecast to bring hefty rains to much of East Africa from October 28 to November 4, 2025, with a high probability of flooding in several countries.
According to the regional assessment by the IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center (ICPAC), the most intense rainfall, exceeding 200mm, is projected for parts of western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, and west Rwanda.
The meteorologists note that 1mm of rainfall is equivalent to one liter of water per square meter, indicating a substantial volume of precipitation.
A wider area, including most of Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, and northern Kenya, is expected to receive moderate rainfall between 50mm and 200mm.
These levels are classified as “more than usual” for the region. Furthermore, the rainfall is predicted to be exceptional, exceeding the 90th percentile for this period in Rwanda and cross-border areas of southern South Sudan, eastern Uganda, and western Kenya.
The consistent heavy rain creates a significant flooding risk, especially considering that the intensity and frequency of the rainfall may vary based on context.
The forecast indicates a likelihood of flooding in flood-prone areas of south-eastern South Sudan, north-eastern Uganda, and most parts of Rwanda.
Concurrently, the region will further experience moderate to high temperatures, which will generally range between 20°C and 32°C, with most areas seeing warmer-than-usual conditions during this period as well.
However, the mix comes with elevated heat stress levels being expected in most parts of eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and towards areas of central South Sudan.
This forecast provides critical data for national disaster management agencies and local communities, highlighting a period of potentially severe weather across the Greater Horn of Africa.
As such, the residents of flood-prone regions are urged to take caution and ensure that they adhere to any communications from the ministries in case of any plans for evacuation.
