Timing shields east and southern Africa from fertiliser price spike 

Africa’s exposure to a fertiliser price surge is uneven, with early planting before the war in Iran sparing some regions and leaving others exposed.

Seth Onyango, One Planet Agency

East and southern Africa have, for now, avoided the sharpest effects of a surge in global fertiliser prices triggered by the Israel–US war with Iran, according to the World Bank’s chief economist for the region.

Prices of urea, a widely used nitrogen fertiliser, have risen by about 95 per cent since the start of the year to roughly $795 a tonne, reflecting tightening supply and rising input costs linked to the conflict.

Yet the timing of the agricultural calendar has given parts of the continent a buffer.

Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s chief economist for Africa, said the current planting season in eastern Africa is largely protected because farmers secured inputs before prices spiked.

“In Eastern Africa, the planting season started in March, and typically procurement for fertiliser gets done maybe a couple of months before that,” Dabalen told CJTN.

“So this season’s planting season is actually okay, right? The rains are, they’ve been normal. The fertiliser was probably procured before the war started, and so this season is going to be potentially fine.”

That window of stability may not last.

Dabalen warned that the next planting cycle could come under pressure if the conflict continues and supply remains constrained.

“What will be the most worrying will be if this war drags on for a long time, the procurement for the following season,” he said.

Domestically, he added “it’s possible that, in fact, if there is no alternative sources of fertiliser supply in the next planting season, you could begin to see domestic production shortfalls rapidly emerge.”

The risk extends beyond regional supply chains. A prolonged disruption to fertiliser markets could affect global agricultural output, limiting availability and pushing prices higher across multiple commodities.

“Now, alternatively, if this is global, right, we should expect that, in fact, the shortages of fertiliser are going to be global. Global food production will also decline,” Dabalen said.

“And so even if you were to go outside and try to import for your shortfall, you might actually end up either not having access because there are a lot of people competing, there are a lot of countries competing for that lower supply, or you might begin to actually pay huge, you know, highly elevated prices, in which case then that gets translated through the domestic inflation and therefore food scarcity.”

The divergence across the continent is becoming clearer as planting seasons shift.

While eastern Africa has already sown its crops, West Africa is approaching a critical period. Its main planting season begins in June and July, and many countries have yet to secure fertiliser supplies.

“At the moment, West Africa’s planting season is ahead. It’s in June or July,” Dabalen said. “We anticipate that those countries that have not yet procured fertiliser for those countries are going to face a lot of pressure in terms of obtaining and procuring these fertiliser supplies for their farmers this coming season.”

For now, weather conditions in eastern Africa have remained stable, offering some support to yields. But economists say the outlook depends heavily on how long the conflict lasts and whether alternative fertiliser supplies can be secured in time for the next cycle.

Without that, the current reprieve could give way to tighter harvests and rising food prices later in the year.

OPA News Agency