As the year 2025 begins, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) in East Africa predicts the region is set to face a season marked by heightened temperatures and widespread dryness. Considering the months prior, these occurrences are set to have significant implications for agriculture, water resources, and livelihoods.
The latest ICPAC forecast highlights key climate trends expected across the region from January to March.
January 2025: A Dry and Warm Month
The month of January is projected to bring drier-than-normal conditions across large swathes of East Africa. Rwanda, Burundi, and most of Tanzania are set to experience significant dryness, while the rest of the region, including Kenya and Ethiopia, will remain predominantly dry.
Temperatures, meanwhile, are forecasted to soar. Warmer-than-usual conditions are likely to dominate in Sudan, northern and eastern South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, and parts of Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
The only areas expecting normal temperatures include northern Uganda and western Sudan, offering rare stability in an otherwise heating landscape.
January–March 2025: Seasonal Outlook
The extended seasonal forecast paints a challenging picture for the region. Central and north-eastern Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya, south-eastern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and coastal and north-western Tanzania are expected to endure drier-than-usual conditions.
This could exacerbate water scarcity and hinder agricultural productivity in already vulnerable areas.
In contrast, central and southern Tanzania and south-western Uganda might seem normal to wetter-than-usual conditions, offering a glimmer of hope for farmers and water managers in these locales.
Temperature-wise, most of the region will grapple with above-average warmth, particularly in Sudan, eastern areas, and southwestern parts of East Africa.
However, some relief is expected in southwestern Sudan, western South Sudan, and Uganda, where temperatures are likely to remain within normal ranges.
Implications for East Africa
These forecasts call for proactive measures to mitigate potential impacts. Drier conditions may threaten crop yields, livestock health, and water availability, heightening the risk of food insecurity in affected areas.
Warmer temperatures could further stress ecosystems, intensify evaporation rates, and create harsher conditions for both urban and rural communities.
Regional governments, humanitarian organizations, and climate experts must collaborate to implement adaptive strategies, including water conservation, crop diversification, and early warning systems. By preparing now, East Africa can better navigate the challenges of a warming and drying start to 2025.
