Based on the IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center (ICPAC) forthcoming heavy rainfall and a mix of temperatures as forecast for 16th to 23rd April 2025, it gives a breakdown of the anticipated weather patterns.
The forecast indicates that there will be moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and the south-western parts of Ethiopia and Somalia.
As some areas receive the heavy rainfall, there will be light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over most parts of South Sudan, central Ethiopia, and the central to northern coastal regions of Somalia.
The predictions also indicate the reception of more than usual rainfall expected over most parts of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, parts of the southern to central regions of Ethiopia, and southern parts of Somalia.
This will be accompanied by less than usual rainfall expected over parts of central South Sudan, south-eastern Ethiopia, and central to southern Somalia.
Rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile (the highest 10% on record) is expected over parts of south-western Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya, northern and eastern Tanzania, and parts of Uganda, Rwanda, and northern Burundi.
According to the predictions, there is an apparent likelihood of isolated flash flood incidents over parts of south-western Ethiopia, most parts of Kenya, northern and eastern Tanzania, and parts of Uganda, Rwanda and northern Burundi.
Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 litre of water per square meter.
Temperature 16 – 23 April 2025
The ICPAC forecast gives insights into the high temperatures (> 32℃) expected in cross-border regions of Sudan and South Sudan, and Ethiopia and Eritrea. With moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.
There are expected to be warmer than usual temperatures over most parts of the Eritrea, Djibouti, Tanzania, eastern Ethiopia and central to northern Somalia.
While other regions with cooler than usual temperatures will be most parts of Sudan, eastern South Sudan into south-western Ethiopia, and northern regions of Uganda and Kenya.
The predictions also show a presence of mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, central to western Kenya, and central Ethiopia.
As the temperatures shift based on regions and locations divergently, heat stress possibilities exist in other regions. Elevated heat stress levels are expected in most parts of South Sudan, eastern Kenya, eastern Tanzania, central to southern Somalia, and southern regions of Sudan, and coastal regions of Eritrea.
