As the sun rises over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), the weather patterns for late February to early March 2025 paint a vivid picture of contrasts. Across the region, the skies and the earth seem to be in a delicate dance, with some areas preparing for dry spells while others brace for the pitter-patter of rain and some heatwaves.
In Tanzania, the story begins with a whisper of concern as anticipated lower-than-usual rainfall across most of the country, leaving the land drier than normal for an early year planting season. Eastern Burundi shares this tale of scarcity, as the clouds seem reluctant to part with their bounty. However, western Burundi and parts of Rwanda are set to receive more rain than usual, a welcome relief for the smallholder farmers as they accomplish the planting season.
The rainfall forecast tells a tale of two extremes. First is that moderate rains, bringing 50 to 200 millimeters of water, are expected to grace Burundi, Rwanda, and the western and southern parts of Tanzania.
Meanwhile, lighter showers, less than 50 millimeters, will sprinkle parts of eastern and central Tanzania, southern Uganda, and a few pockets of coastal and western Kenya. Along the Red Sea coast, the skies will offer only a modest gift of rain.
As the forecasts foresee rain patterns, they also detail the temperatures across the region adding another layer to the narrative. Most of the Greater Horn of Africa will experience moderate to high temperatures, ranging between 20°C and 32°C.
The heat is set to rise, with eastern South Sudan bearing the brunt of scorching temperatures above 32°C. However, cooler pockets will provide respite in northern Sudan, the Ethiopian highlands, western Rwanda, and central to western Kenya, where temperatures will dip below 20°C.
The region will further feel warmer than usual, except the coastal areas of Somalia and Kenya, as well as the highlands of Tanzania, where cooler-than-average temperatures will prevail.
For many, this warmth will bring discomfort, as elevated heat stress levels are expected to grip South Sudan, eastern Tanzania, southern Sudan, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia.
In preparation for dry spells, bracing for heat, or welcoming the rain, the story of the weather is one that touches everyone. Hence forecasts call for early preparedness for whatever situation or intensity of weather patterns based on the areas, urging people to take extra care.
