A new report from Climate Analytics reveals that the “hard-to-abate” claim, used by the iron, steel, and cement sectors, is stifling real progress on emission cuts. Since with a justified reliance on unproven technological solutions, this narrative is delaying urgent, achievable action.
The report, “Hard-to-Abate: A Justification for Delay?”, analyzes the latest scientific evidence on emission reduction opportunities and reviews the current state of Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) for these sectors.
It raises significant concerns about the industry’s pivot to CCUS, a technology that remains unproven, expensive, and incapable of reducing emissions to the levels required to limit warming to 1.5°C.
According to Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, this faith in a failing technology is a new form of greenwashing. “The industry’s faith in the ongoing failure of CCUS is delaying urgent action to cut emissions,” Hare said. “It’s a new kind of greenwash based on technology that, frankly, doesn’t work, and would not cut emissions from these sectors to zero.”
The report directly challenges the core industry narrative. “The claim that iron and steel production as a whole is hard-to-abate is misleading. This mainly rests on the incumbency advantages of a particularly fossil fuel-intensive production route, for which there are technologically viable substitutes,” it states.
It concludes that while the technical challenges are real, the evidence demonstrates that decarbonization is not only possible but highly achievable with existing and emerging technologies, especially when guided by integrated, whole-system approaches and robust policy frameworks.
Iron and Steel Production
A key finding is that no new coal-fuelled blast furnace-basic oxygen furnaces (BF-BOF), which account for 72% of steel production, should be built.
Furthermore, some existing plants must be decommissioned early, particularly in China, which has a relatively young fleet of emissions-intensive blast furnaces.
The report outlines policy options to accelerate this transition and shift the perception of the sector. Solutions include reducing demand through increased use of recycled steel and improved material efficiency.
Achieving near-zero emissions will require substantial policy support, combining ‘carrots’ like investment in low-emissions production with ‘sticks’ like regulatory restrictions on high-emissions production.
Cement Production
The report advocates for a comprehensive approach to cement decarbonization that moves beyond the “hard-to-abate” view.
While improving production efficiency is crucial, it is equally important to examine the entire lifecycle, including demand management and material substitution.
It shows that the world needs to reserve cement for essential applications, replacing it elsewhere with alternatives like wood and stone. This strategy alone could reduce cement demand by 20-30%.
CCS/CCUS
The assessment of Carbon Capture and Storage concludes it is not available at the scale and reliability claimed by these sectors.
The International Energy Agency has consistently cut its outlook for CCS, reducing its 2030 projection for the steel industry by 61% since 2021 and its 2050 outlook by 40%.
“Waiting for breakthroughs that may never arrive can disincentivize short-term investment and investigation of nascent technologies,” Hare said.
He concluded with a clear recommendation: “Diverting finite policy support to applications that can feasibly stop emissions from being generated, rather than those that might prolong emissions generation, appears a far less risky strategy.”
