Eastern Africa is expected to experience significant weather variations between February and April 2025, with IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) projections indicating drier-than-usual conditions in some areas and above-average rainfall in others. The forecast also shows how temperatures across the region are set to rise, with some areas likely to experience extreme warmth.
According to the latest forecast, February 2025 will bring drier-than-normal conditions to southwestern Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and most of Tanzania. However, central and southern Tanzania are expected to receive near-normal to above-average rainfall, offering some relief in an otherwise dry outlook.
Temperatures during this period are forecasted to be warmer than usual across the entire region with the most significant temperature increases expected in southern and northeastern Ethiopia, parts of eastern South Sudan, central and northern Kenya, southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and northwestern and southern Tanzania.
Notably, these areas are said to have a likeliness of experiencing prolonged heat, which may have implications for agriculture, water availability, and overall living conditions. However, despite the imbalances in regions’ reception of rainfall and heat, the broader February to April 2025 season, weather patterns are expected to remain mixed.
Drier-than-normal conditions are anticipated in Ethiopia, central and northern Kenya, central and western Uganda, parts of southern South Sudan, southern Eritrea, Djibouti, most parts of Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi, and select areas in Tanzania. These conditions are likely to pose challenges for farming communities that rely on seasonal rains for crop production.
In contrast, some regions are likely to see above-average rainfall with wetter-than-usual conditions forecast for western Kenya, eastern Uganda, southeastern South Sudan, southern Kenya, and most parts of Tanzania. The increased rainfall in these areas is beneficial as it might enhance the agricultural output and water resources but fear is are it may also heighten the risk of flooding and waterborne diseases.
Temperature trends for the February to April season show that the entire region is expected to experience above-average warmth, with the highest temperature increases projected in northern, eastern, and southern areas. This warming trend aligns with broader global climate patterns as witnessed with the year 2024 becoming the hottest on record and may exacerbate existing heat-related challenges, including drought stress and reduced water availability.
As weather patterns continue to shift in the Eastern Africa region, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) will provide regular regional updates. Meanwhile, national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) will deliver more detailed forecasts at national and sub-national levels to help communities and policymakers prepare for the coming months.
Based on the forecast, both dry spells and heavy rains are expected hence governments, farmers, and local communities must take proactive measures to mitigate potential climate-related impacts. These would include; sustainable water management, early warning systems, and climate-smart agricultural practices will be crucial in adapting to these evolving conditions.
