The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has released its seasonal climate forecast for March to May (MAM) 2025, a timespan that is essential for the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. The season contributes up to 60% of annual rainfall in many areas, which dictates the outcome of agricultural activities, water resources availability, and livelihoods.
According to a Research Scientist at ICPAC Masilin Gudoshava, the region focused on is largely dependent on agriculture hence through the forecasting, a farmer gets awareness that in turn informs their crop selection.
“Farmers are enabled to know when the rainfall is more than 300mm or less and therefore inform them which gives early warning preparedness for what awaits. This is made possible by our online dashboards like the Agricultural Monitoring Watch, and Earth Hazards Watch among regular forecasts shared on a monthly and weekly basis,” said Masilin.
The forecast indicates a higher likelihood of below-normal rainfall in several regions, particularly in Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, southern and northeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, western South Sudan, and southern and western Uganda.
The same is predicted for Rwanda, Burundi, and northwestern Tanzania. Additionally, drier-than-usual conditions are expected in cross-border areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, as well as northeastern Ethiopia and southern Eritrea.
In contrast, wetter-than-normal conditions are likely in most of Tanzania, eastern Uganda, eastern South Sudan, and western Ethiopia. There is also a high probability that rainfall will exceed 200 mm in southwestern Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania hence early forecasting for preparedness.
Dr. Abdi Fidar, ICPAC’s Officer-in-Charge, emphasized the importance of collaborative efforts in addressing climate risks most importantly because they are transboundary in occurrence. “As the IGAD region faces increasing climate variability—droughts, floods, and rising temperatures—platforms like GHACOFs are essential for fostering cooperation and preparedness,” he said.
He also highlighted the role of climate services in closing the early warning gap, stressing the need for accurate, timely information to enhance disaster response and resilience.
The temperature projections show a strong likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions across much of the region, with the highest probabilities in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern Somalia, and northern Kenya.
While most areas are expected to experience an early or normal start to the rainy season, some localized regions in central Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and central Somalia may see delays.
The expected climatic conditions are likely to have significant social and economic impacts, with vulnerable populations like women, children, the elderly, and persons with disabilities facing heightened risks. ICPAC has urged stakeholders to take proactive measures to mitigate these effects by embracing early warning and preparedness for climate shocks.
H.E. Mr. Motumma Mekasa, State Minister and Advisor to Ethiopia’s Minister of Water and Energy, acknowledged IGAD’s role in advancing the calls for regional integration and being an agent of driving climate action.
He commended its efforts in not only working to address climate change but also educating the skills. Emphasizing the importance of institutionalizing climate services to support sustainable development and protect livelihoods.
The March to May 2025 seasonal forecast was developed using January 2025 projections from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs), following objective forecasting procedures recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
