The weather outlook for January 14–21, 2025, indicates significant variations in rainfall and temperature across the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) Meteorologists forecast higher-than-usual rainfall in southern Kenya and northern Tanzania, coupled with warmer-than-average temperatures across most parts of the region.
Moderate rainfall, ranging between 50 and 200 mm, is expected in southern Kenya, central to western Tanzania, and much of Burundi. Meanwhile, lighter rainfall, measuring less than 50 mm, is anticipated over Rwanda, northern Burundi, southeastern and western Kenya, southeastern Uganda, eastern Tanzania, and regions along the Red Sea coast.
Exceptional rainfall—exceeding the top 10% of historical records—is projected for certain cross-border areas of Kenya and Tanzania. These conditions may result in isolated flooding, particularly in high-risk zones. Authorities advise affected communities to remain vigilant and take precautionary measures during this period.
Rainfall anomalies show an unusual pattern, with southern Kenya, northern Tanzania, and parts of western and eastern Burundi likely to experience above-normal precipitation. Conversely, southern and western Tanzania may receive less rainfall than usual.
Regarding temperature, most areas in the GHA are expected to record moderate to high temperatures ranging from 20 to 32°C. This includes South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, southern and northeastern Ethiopia, and southern Sudan. Cooler conditions, below 20°C, will prevail in central to northern Sudan, central Ethiopia, northern Somalia, central to western Kenya, and parts of Rwanda and Burundi.
Temperature anomalies suggest that warmer-than-usual conditions will dominate much of the region, although cooler-than-average temperatures are expected along Kenya’s coastal areas and a few isolated regions. Additionally, cautionary levels of heat stress are predicted for eastern South Sudan, eastern Tanzania, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia.
These weather conditions highlight the need for preparedness and vigilance. Communities in flood-prone and heat-stressed areas are encouraged to stay informed through local weather updates and take necessary actions to minimize potential risks.
