Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during the weather forecasted period by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC).
In terms of rainfall, moderate amounts ranging between 50mm and 200mm are forecasted over Burundi and parts of western Tanzania. Lighter rainfall, with totals below 50mm, is expected across much of Tanzania, Rwanda, and the southern parts of Uganda and Kenya. In particular, parts of Burundi and northwestern Tanzania will experience above-average rainfall, while most of Tanzania is likely to receive less rainfall than usual.
Eastern South Sudan will experience particularly high temperatures, exceeding 32°C, while most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and southern Sudan, as well as central to eastern Rwanda and Burundi, will have moderate to high temperatures ranging between 20°C and 32°C. Cooler conditions, with temperatures below 20°C, are expected in northern Sudan, the Ethiopian highlands, northern Somalia, and parts of central to western Kenya.
Temperature anomalies indicate that most areas in the region will experience warmer-than-usual conditions. However, coastal regions of Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania are likely to be slightly cooler than average. Additionally, heat stress levels are expected to rise significantly in central to eastern South Sudan, coastal and southeastern Tanzania, and southern Somalia into eastern Kenya.
These weather patterns may have implications for agriculture, water availability, and overall climate conditions in the region. Communities in areas expecting elevated heat stress should take necessary precautions, while those in regions with rainfall anomalies should remain aware of potential impacts on farming and water resources.
