Adoption of renewable energy, especially solar, is a towering success in Kenya. Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) solar, like SunKing and M-Kopa, has revolutionized energy access for many low-income households, making Kenya a global model for off-grid solar systems.
However, this rising success presents an invisible waste problem. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)’s official projections, “large amounts of annual waste are anticipated by the early 2030s” and could total 78 million tonnes by the year 2050, if panels are kept in place for the entirety of their 30-year life cycle. A paper published in the Harvard Business Review surmised that this is way below the reality.
Kenya’s commitment to renewable energy is exemplified by the Garissa Solar Power Station, a 55MW facility that supplies clean energy to the national grid, powering approximately 625,000 homes.
Moreover, with over 60 operational solar mini-grids and more than 1.3 million solar home systems sold, solar energy is transforming access to electricity nationwide. Francis Mukula, Lead Installation Technician, Power Africa Solar, says, “Most businesses are adopting solar energy to minimize production costs while maximizing profits.”
According to President William Ruto, a transition to clean energy is a no-brainer as it will create jobs, protect local economies, and accelerate the sustainable industrialization of Africa. Kenya is home to the world’s largest wind farm, and our electricity supply is already 92% renewable, with 74% of our overall energy use powered by clean energy.
The Hidden Challenge of Solar
Solar panels are made of glass, silver, and other toxic materials. This complex composition makes it hard to recycle. Research shows that recycling would cost between $20–$30 while landfilling costs $1–$2.
While the lifespan of solar is between 25-30 years, the possibility of early replacements is high. According to the researchers’ statistical model, solar panels can produce 50 times more waste in just four years than IRENA anticipates. That figure translates to around 315,000 metric tonnes of waste, based on an estimate of 90 tonnes per MW weight-to-power ratio. Is Kenya preparing for what comes after the sunshine?
Three variables were particularly salient in determining replacement decisions: installation price, compensation rate (i.e., the going rate for solar energy sold to the grid), and module efficiency.
Kenyan solar expert David Kariuki, Managing Director of Metrocart Ltd, has flagged this issue, warning that “low quality products, especially decommissioned and dumped products from western markets marketed as new, affect efficiency and life span, which affects the market confidence and transfers the solar waste to the country.”
By 2035, discarded panels would outweigh new units sold by 2.56 times. In turn, this would catapult the LCOE (levelized cost of energy, a measure of the overall cost of an energy-producing asset over its lifetime) to four times the current projection.
Leadership Moment
Kenya is a regional leader in environmental conservation. Favorable policies like tax incentives and partnerships with private players in the renewable market have catapulted the sector. The ban on plastics and incentives to boost the carbon marketplace place Kenya as a leader in the green revolution.
The impending crisis provides an opportunity to create a solar recycling economy with the right policies. In the EU, recycling responsibilities for past (historic) waste have been apportioned to manufacturers based on current market share. Kenya, and the region, need legislation now before the panels begin to pile up.
Developing a national policy for panel end-of-life management could be enforced through importer/producer responsibility for recycling infrastructure. Moreover, there is a need to promote public-private partnerships to fund R&D and recycling tech. While panels contain small amounts of valuable materials such as silver, they are mostly made of glass, an extremely low-value material. The long lifespan of solar panels also serves to disincentivize innovation in this area.
Most importantly, the required solar panel recycling capacity has to be built, as part of a comprehensive end-of-life infrastructure also encompassing uninstallation, transportation, and, in the meantime, adequate storage facilities for solar waste.
Despite these misgivings, the solar revolution does not pose an environmental crisis as research has shown, continuing to rely on fossil fuels to the extent we currently do will bequeath a damaged, if not dying, planet to future generations. The benefits the globe stands to gain from the green energy revolution are indisputable. Therefore, Kenya needs to set an African precedent by acting now.
