During the week of 29 April to 6 May 2025, several regions in Eastern Africa are expected to experience significant weather variations in both rainfall and temperature.
Rainfall levels are projected to be higher than usual across southern Tanzania, eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and western Ethiopia. In particular, parts of southern Tanzania are expected to receive heavy rainfall exceeding 200 millimetres.
Moderate rainfall, ranging between 50 and 200 millimetres, is forecast across a broad area that includes South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, southern and northeastern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, and central to western Ethiopia.
Lighter rainfall, below 50 millimetres, is anticipated over central Tanzania, central to northwestern Kenya, eastern Ethiopia, northwestern Somalia, and some parts of southern Sudan.
In contrast, reduced rainfall is forecast over parts of western Kenya, central Uganda, northern Somalia, and southeastern Ethiopia.
Rainfall amounts are expected to exceed the 90th percentile, indicating some of the highest levels on record, in parts of southern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and southern Ethiopia.
Given these conditions, there is a risk of isolated flash floods, particularly in flood-prone areas of southern Kenya, southern Tanzania, southwestern Somalia, and western Ethiopia.
In terms of temperature, high temperatures exceeding 32°C are anticipated in the southern parts of Sudan.
Moderate to high temperatures, ranging from 20°C to 32°C, are expected to prevail across most areas of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.
Meanwhile, milder conditions, below 20°C, are forecast for much of Burundi, Rwanda, central to western Kenya, and central Ethiopia.
The outlook also indicates warmer-than-average temperatures over large parts of the region, including Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, western South Sudan, and central to southern Sudan.
Conversely, cooler-than-average conditions are likely in parts of northern Sudan and eastern South Sudan. Of concern are elevated heat stress levels expected in cross-border areas of southern Sudan and northern South Sudan.
